Of course there's a fair chance that commodity prices will crash over the next year or so -- they've spiked of a piece with oil, to a fair degree independent of supply and demand.

Nb. there's a fair argument that what we've seen with oil and commodities (gold and base metal) is an effort by major investment funds to reposition themselves with a surrogate currency other than the USD. (Basically the world's financial markets have spent the past half-decade switching off the 'dollar-standard,' with unfortunate results for those who value these commodities as raw materials rather than repositories of wealth.)

... of course it adds to the argument that the mountain of lead in our closet is actually an investment strategy.

Tin is better - it's worth twelve times as much as lead, and three times as much as copper. But, of course, you were probably speaking in general terms of metal miniatures, yes?

And given GW's pricing policy, plastic space marines now are a good investment strategy.

Heh. Yes, mountain of lead is a figurative term... I have to admit I don't know the exact composition of my 'portfolio.'

But yes, you can blame the rising cost of materials on speculators like 'us.'

:-).

I wonder what they will make marines out of after we hit "peak oil" and plastic and resin start to get as expensive as metal? Ceramic? ;-)

Ivory.

Unobtanium!

Ooo, hovering macguffin models complicit in the death of blue cat-people? Awesome.

Speculators are certainly a factor in the rising prices of oil and everything related to it (metals, food, most things really), but I read extensively in this and related areas and the evidence suggests higher oil prices are more to do with supply and demand.

Plastic at ever increasing higher prices (as they have been doing) so long as their business lasts? What makes you think peak oil is a future event? Conventional oil has been on a bumpy plateau for the last five years with the all-time peak around 2006 (as even the conservative IEA admit after predicting for decades it was a long way into the future if ever), while the remaining oil is increasingly in harder and more energy intensive places to extract meaning the EROI (energy return on energy investment) from it continues to decline. World population and oil demand are still increasing rapidly meanwhile, despite the ongoing depression in the West. The volatility of the oil price has increased markedly in recent years, as was predicted to happen following peak oil; there’s much less time between the high and low points of the price cycles now and each time the low point is higher than the last. Saudi Arabia’s actions and other evidence suggest the world may have little to no spare oil capacity anymore. All in most of industrial civilisation as we’ve come to know it is pretty screwed and likely to severely contract or collapse and we’re part way through that already, with things set to get much worse.

Sorry this is taking the thread further off the original topic but these are important issues people should be aware of as they affect us all (this recent article on zero hedge is a good introductory discussion on the state of play and energy bulletin and the oil drum are excellent resources). Hoarding models can work as an investment (I’ve sold £5k of models recently to get me through the rest of the uni year) but if we get to a time when most people are struggling to meet their basic needs they could become next to worthless. Better future investment strategies include learning and practicing growing your own food from heirloom seeds; storing many months of food, seeds and tools; down-shifting your house and habits; insulating and learning DIY and networking with your neighbours and others in your community.

Well said, but that backlog of "worthless" models has an unexpected benefit in such a scenario: something to do during long bouts of unemployment.

you forgot tin foil hat making!

Too expensive given the price of tin.

In fairness, GlynG isn't suggesting all that much more than serious -- i.e. Mormon-style -- disaster preparedness.... which, in this day and age seems fairly reasonable.

The good news is that the threat of full scale nuclear war receded in the 1990s. As such, 'put your head between you legs and kiss your a** goodbye' receded as a rational response to the largest conceivable threat. That said, this only makes clearer the 'residual' threats: peak oil, an EMP bomb. rapid climate change, to say nothing of a double-dip (and/or China-led) global recession that more severely impacts OECD economies. All of this, (except the double-dip) may be unlikely, but none of which is totally implausible.

It has been pointed out that folks in Joplin, MO could be forgiven for thinking that Mr. Camping's predictions weren't so far off.

Mild apologies about further hijacking... though this thread has been running on fumes for a while anyway.

:-).

I need some badab black wash, so I may pick up a 'Finecost' toy tomorrow and witness the newness.

I saw some Finecast blisters for sale today and honestly, I DO think they have finer detail than metal. I thought it was noticeable on some of the ridges on Lelith Hesperax's armor and the texture on some Space Wolf character's fur coat.

But I admit, some of it is just better visibility on the flat gray resin.

After seeing the new packaging on the finecast stuff I thing the extra cost is that and has nothing to do with the actual cost to produce the model

I foresee a WW2-like scrap metal drive for us to continue with metal production! C'mon and melt down your frying pans and tea pots!

"Do it for the lads!!"