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Is this the doom of Specialist Games

 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 1:37 pm 
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Gentlemen, I fear these news reports from 3 UK national newspapers ?show there are dark times ahead for Specialist Games. Now the recent cuts to EA can be put into their true context. I say, let us lead a palace coup on GW, kill off the grey suits, burn Tolkien and install Jervis as the true Emperor!


The Guardian (London)
April 5, 2005
Pg. 15

HEADLINE: Games Workshop customers are bored of the rings
Games Workshop lost almost a third of its value on the stock market yesterday when the battle game retailer warned of a faster than expected drop-off in sales of its Lord of the Rings figurines and games after the release of the final instalment of the film trilogy just over a year ago.

Shares in the company sank 213.5p to 502.5p, their lowest point in almost two years, slashing ?66m from the value of the business, which also makes and sells the Warhammer series of figurines and game rulebooks. Tom Kirby, chairman and chief executive, said: "For the last two or three years we've been growing rapidly on the back of a licensing deal with Lord of the Rings."

In some regions the company, which has more than 300 stores dotted across Europe, America and Australia, saw sales rise 30% to 40% as a result of demand for figurines and game rulebooks which the company produced to coincide with the three Lord of the Rings films.

While sales of the merchandise had been expected to decline once the film of the last of JRR Tolkien's books, The Return of the King, had been released, Mr Kirby admitted the company had been "caught out" by the rate of decline.

It warned yesterday that trading since the announcement of its half-year results in January had been tough especially in Britain and continental Europe.

Over the five week period in cluding Easter, sales fell below budget. Games Workshop will now fail to reach analysts' forecasts for annual sales of between ?151m and ?162m. Sales will be below the ?151.8m made in 2004, though the company said it expects to "comfortably" exceed the ?129m sales it made in 2003. Profits will also be lower than expected.
"If it's a blip it's a hell of a big blip," admitted Mr Kirby, adding that the sales downturn is also likely to affect its results for next year.

Mr Kirby tried to reassure investors that Games Workshop's core business, including its Warhammer franchise, is still popular and the sales slowdown is not general. It said the final dividend would be maintained at 14.025p for the full year.


THE DAILY TELEGRAPH(LONDON)
April 05, 2005, Tuesday
Pg. 026
A CHILL wind has swept through the world of blood-stained Orks and piratical Dark Eldar, sending the shares of Games Workshop into freefall. The company, which manufactures and retails tiny metal figurines used in table-top games, says sales have fallen "more steeply than expected" in March. The shares plummeted 213= to 502=p.

Chief executive Tom Kirby insisted the sales fall had nothing to do with the slowdown in consumer spending. "We absolutely deny that the chill wind on the high street has hit us," he said.

Mr Kirby blamed the "unsustainable bubble" created by a collectable Lord of the Rings magazine published in parts by De Agostini. The television adverts for this part-work featuring Games Workshop, paid for by De Agostini, drove a lot of new customers into the shops. "We've lost these casual customers faster than expected," said Mr Kirby.

Analysts have knocked about pounds 10m off their sales forecasts but nearly as much off profits. Sahill Shan, at TD Waterhouse, cut his pre-tax profit forecast for this year from pounds 20.8m to pounds 13m. He said: "The question is whether enough of the younger brothers of 14- and 15-year-olds are taking up the hobby."

Mr Kirby, who keeps his personal collection of thousands of hand-painted figures in his office, insisted the table-top wargaming hobby was alive and well.




DAILY MAIL (London)
April 5, 2005
Pg. 57
FANTASY war games seller Games Workshop slumped 30pc after admitting that sales will fall short of forecasts. It blames 'difficult' trading in the UK and Europe due to a slump in demand for Lord of the Rings toy soldiers.

Finance director Michael Sherwin says: 'When a bubble starts to deflate, the difficult thing is knowing how fast it will do so.' Sales for the last five weeks, including the Easter holiday, are 'well below budget'. Profits for the current year are 'going to fall fairly significantly'.

Games Workshop plans to maintain the final dividend at 14.025p as a sign of its confidence. Shares in the retailer sank 2131/2p to 5021/2p, wiping Pounds 66m off its market value. Sherwin reckons: 'There is an element of overreaction.' However, Games Workshop's own broker Baird slashed its profit forecast from Pounds 22.8m to Pounds 13.9m. The Lord of the Rings films caused a huge boost in sales in 2002-2004. Sherwin says it was 'inherently difficult' to forecast when demand would wane and had hoped for a 'staggered' slowdown. Games Workshop has 350 stores, including 118 in the UK.

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 2:22 pm 
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Quote (Gaunts Ghost @ 06 2005 April,13:37)
HEADLINE: Games Workshop customers are bored of the rings
Games Workshop lost almost a third of its value on the stock market yesterday when the battle game retailer warned of a faster than expected drop-off in sales of its Lord of the Rings figurines and games after the release of the final instalment of the film trilogy just over a year ago.

I bought a fair amount of the boxed sets, and was going to complete my collection but they raised the price from ?12 a box to ?15 recently... so I ditched LOTR.

Wasn't overly keen on the game, liked the models though.





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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 2:34 pm 
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I can't think of anything positive to say at this point ... of course ... I only play EPic ...

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:10 pm 
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You should also try Battlefleet gothic, L4. Appart from that, nothing to add.

Regards,

Xavi

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:49 pm 
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I suppose the question now is what do GW do?

- continue to flog a dead horse with the LOTR range (perhaps in the hope of the hobbit being made) whilst axing other less profitable projects such as SG to cut costs and increasing prices for 40k&wfb

-axe LOTR (are they contractually obliged to make the range?) and expand the 40k/WFB range into its place

-axe LOTR and revive one of the SG range to replace it


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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:29 pm 
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Option 3 will never, ever be taken

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:33 pm 
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Though a few people here would probably like it to be... :blues:

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:36 pm 
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Hi,

I'm surprised it took this long to be honest. We all knew that it would drop away after the films had been and gone. If GW's financial bods didn't see it coming and they hadn't worked out what to follow it up with before the first film even came out then I would be astounded (but probably not surprised).

The LOTR game is the focus of this summer's GW campaign, so they won't do anything to it until that is completed, but I think most of the areas that were originally planned to be covered have been, so there won't be much support/new minis by this coming winter. No doubt they'll try to hype it back up this summer to get people to buy their remaining stock before discarding it (to SG possibly).

I've got a funny feeling that WFB and 40k will be getting new armies to expand their ranges, specialist games will feature in WD's every few months to try to keep people interested, and we might even see the return of old SG games in new guises.

Very uncertain times indeed. GW seem to be faultering on their mighty pedestal. It will be nice to see the WD editorial in a few months...

Cheers,
Freshmetal

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:10 pm 
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Interesting that this comes out so soon after they make an increase in their prices in all product lines, too..... but of course that fact won't be officially admitted, or even mentioned, I bet!

No, not a happy thing at all for our favorite "non-core" games, I'd say.

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:25 pm 
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Hi!

I'd suspect they "bigwigs" saw this coming and thus axeing SG or anything else beyond the core games became a necessity to keep their margin looking as good as possible.

It will be interesting to see what they do in the next year.

Primarch

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 10:32 pm 
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Apart from those big elephant thiings - there are a lot of indistinct rusty blobs on the table in a LOTR game. Earthy coloured rangers and orks just blend into the background at 25mm scale. ?Warhammer games are a lot more colourful, diverse, and the background is also more interesting and detailed (IMHO).




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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:39 am 
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We played the old Space Fleet game a few times Xavi, years ago.  But Epic continued to be our favorite.  Sold all the SF stuff bought more Epic ...  :;):

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 2:05 am 
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Hi!

You sound like me...

..get rid of everything, but epic... :;):

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 5:08 am 
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Epic and Epic only ... forever !  Or at least until I die or move to Florida ! :o :D  Which ever comes first ! :laugh:  If some of you get a box of Epic stuff in the mail from me ... you know what happened !   :laugh:

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 Post subject: Is this the doom of Specialist Games
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 5:10 am 
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Hi!

Nah, I'm getting buried with mine.... :;):
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