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Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
1. MW4+ Ignore cover 48%  48%  [ 13 ]
2. AP3+/AT4+, Small Arms +1EA Ignore cover 22%  22%  [ 6 ]
3. Something else (state below) 30%  30%  [ 8 ]
Total votes : 27

Demolisher Cannons - What to do?

 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:49 am 
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I am for MW5+ with Ignore Cover or MW4+ without but I would try to limit it to Marines (special ammo, whatever). The Ryza Pattern Demolisher and the Baneblade are ok in my opinion.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:57 am 
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(Markconz @ Jul. 25 2007,11:47)
QUOTE

(Red Pendrigh @ Jul. 25 2007,10:15)
QUOTE
Well MW fits the capabilities of the cannon in the 40K scale, (Hit a squad of smurfs, they're dead on 2+, no save) however you only have a 1 in 3 chance of hiting so I'd make it MW5+.

The second part of your statement is incorrect. The chance of hitting in 40k is ALWAYS much better than 1/3. Scatters of 1 or 2 inches will still be direct hits on almost all targets, and partials on others. Scatters of 3-4 inches will often still be direct rather than partial hits against large targets like landraiders or monoliths. When there are multiple targets it is almost impossible to miss.

In any case trying to directly translate game mechanics from 40k to epic is not the way to go, even if it is done accurately.

vs. the chance of rolling a 1 to wound/penetrate/damage. I'd still say it works out at 1 in 3. The chances of damaging a target with a 'miss' are OK when you're stationary but you've virtually no hope when you're moving, which given the short range of the demolisher is quite a lot of the time.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:17 pm 
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(Red Pendrigh @ Jul. 25 2007,10:57)
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vs. the chance of rolling a 1 to wound/penetrate/damage. I'd still say it works out at 1 in 3. The chances of damaging a target with a 'miss' are OK when you're stationary but you've virtually no hope when you're moving, which given the short range of the demolisher is quite a lot of the time.

You get to roll two dice and pick the highest for penetration against vehicles, and use the Ordnance damage table. You roll double damage against light vehicles. You have multiple targets under the template many times so multiple chances to kill.  Also even if you insist on taking the worst case scenarios where you are moving every turn and firing at the worst targets (tiny targets with nothing close by which doesn't sound like good tactics at all), the chance is still better than a 1/3 just by statistical necessity.
Besides which an epic turn can represent an entire 40k game not one turn... so how does that figure into the equation?

Like I said trying to directly translate game mechanics like this just doesn't work.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 4:55 pm 
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MW4+ seems right - it's clearly better at killing infantry than a multimelta (even if you assume 2nd ed blast meltas), and, at least at long range, it's better at killing vehicles than a multi-melta.


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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:24 pm 
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(Evil and Chaos @ Jul. 24 2007,19:28)
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the Vindicator is fine for the points


The Vindicator is terrible.

It is the single worst vehicle in the Marine armoury, which is already stocked with sub-par tanks.



I'm going to start testing Baneblades, Demolishers & Vindicators with the MW proposal.

I didn't say that the Vindicator was a good tank, I said it was fine for the points.  

The way that I see it the Vindicator is pretty much equal to the Predators, which is good because they are the same points cost.  The Predators have more, much lighter weapons and higher speed while the Vindicator has 1 pretty big weapon and a slightly slower speed.

For the points cost the Vindicator is fine in my opinion.  In regards to the army that it is a part of, the Space Marines, it is not a good tank.  It is slower than the other tanks in the force and if assigned to a formation of faster vehicles it is an anchor.

If people want to improve the Vindicator they should increase its speed to match the Predators and increase the points cost to reflect that change.  Don't mess with the Demolisher cannon, it doesn't need improvement.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:06 pm 
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If people want to improve the Vindicator they should increase its speed to match the Predators and increase the points cost to reflect that change.


That makes me chuckle.


When was the last time you used Vindicators in a game that did anything except:

a - Fire a couple of shots, and maybe kill a negligable ammount of enemy infantry.

b - Get shot and become a combat innefective formation.



For four AV's, with just four short-ranged shots, they are horribly expensive.


They wouldn't be worth their points cost in any army in the game.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:20 pm 
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(Evil and Chaos @ Jul. 25 2007,18:06)
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If people want to improve the Vindicator they should increase its speed to match the Predators and increase the points cost to reflect that change.


That makes me chuckle.


When was the last time you used Vindicators in a game that did anything except:

a - Fire a couple of shots, and maybe kill a negligable ammount of enemy infantry.

b - Get shot and become a combat innefective formation.



For four AV's, with just four short-ranged shots, they are horribly expensive.


They wouldn't be worth their points cost in any army in the game.

I'm glad I was able to make you laugh, as misplaced as it might be.

I was in the process of writing this long analysis to prove my point when I realized that I factored things wrong in the beginning, stemming from placing too much value in the Ignore Cover special ability. ?During the writing of this I have decided to change my opinion regarding the Vindicator; I think that it definately should have its speed increased from 20cm to 30cm without any change in points cost. ?Read on if you want to find out why.

Vindicators are special purpose tanks, designed to go after units that are in cover and blast them. ?They are not open field fighters, they are not intended to go toe-to-toe with MBT, and they should not be used like any other unit in the Space Marine arsenal. ?Vindicators are tools intended to perform a specific job, and that's it. ?The Vindicator is the only Space Marine unit that has an "Ignore Cover" weapon, and if you intentionally use it for any porpose other than supporting operations then it is going to perform poorly.

There are two methodologies for employing the Vindicator: Tactical Support and Operational Support. ?

Tactical Support is where you throw one or two Vindicators in with a detachment of infantry to support them. ?Yes, you could use Predator Destructors for this, and they will have advantages in range and volume of fire, but their to-hits stink and they don't ignore cover. ?How would you use a Vindicator in WH40K? ?Scale it down for Epic...

Operational Support is where you put a detachment of 4 (or more) of them together and send them after an entrenched strongpoint, almost to the exclusion of everything else. ?A hunter-killer team.

Now you may be saying: "Yada, yada, yada, blah, blah, blah. ?I already know this." ?OK, then let's talk numbers.

The Vindicator has the Demolisher Cannon, which has a 30cm range a AP3+/AT4+ rating, and the Ignore Cover special ability. ?Let's say that there will be an equal chance of an infantry or armored vehicle target available to shoot and that the player is not predisposed to shooting at one over the other. ?That would mean that you average the to-hit probabilities, 66.667% against infantry and 50% for armored vehicles, to a 58.333% chance of hitting something. ?Since various weapons have different ranges, and range does matter, as a quick way to represent the benefits of range let's multiply the probability to kill something by the number of 15cm increments the range of the weapon has. ?So for the 30cm ranged weapon we multiply by 2 (30cm/15cm increments = 2) the 58.333% chance of hitting something to get a 116.667%-brackets number. ?To factor in the Ignore Cover special ability, which ignores the -1 to-hit modifier (16.667% shift in probability) for cover and negates infantry cover saves, we'll multiply the final number by 1.16667 giving a final 136.111%-brackets number.

The Predator Destructor has an autocannon, which has a 45cm range and a AP5+/AT6+ rating, and two Heavy Bolters which have a 30cm range and a AP5+ rating. ?Let's say that there will be an equal chance of an infantry or armored vehicle target available to shoot and that the player is not predisposed to shooting at one over the other. ?That would mean that you average the to-hit probabilities of each weapon, multiply by the number of range brackets they can reach, and add them together. ?The autocannon has a 33.333% against infantry and 16.666% for armored vehicles, averaging to a 25.0% chance of hitting something. ?Multiply this by the 3 range brackets it can reach and you get the number 75.0%-brackets. ?The heavy bolters have a 33.333% against infantry and 0.00% for armored vehicles, averaging to a 16.667% chance of hitting something. ?Multiply this by the 2 range brackets they can reach and you get the number 33.333%-brackets. ?Add all three numbers together and you get 141.667%-brackets.

Compare the 2 numbers: 136.111%-brackets for the Vindicator and 141.667%-brackets for the Predator Destructor and you see that the Vindicator has 96.61% as much firepower as the Predator Destructor. ?I'll call that close enough to even to say that the two tanks have equal firepower.

But there is still one difference between the Vindicator and the Predator Destructor: their speed. ?Assuming that the universally agreed upon change of giving the Predator Destructor a 4+ FF rating holds true the two vehicles are identical in stats except for their weapons (which I have shown to be effectively equal) and their speed. ?Since the two vehicles have the same points cost it stands to reason that the Vindicator should get a speed increase from 20cm to 30cm. ?That should be sufficient to make the Vindicator worth its points.





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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:35 pm 
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Okay, that's interesting stuff Blarg.

Now leave its speed at 20cm, and change the main gun to a 4+ MW instead.

Remember to bear in mind that Predators are also overpriced.

What does your system say then as to the damage output?


In my opinion, a vehicle with less shots but the same cost should have a higher base value of damage potential when looked at under the type of analysis you've done, due to the higher probability of wide variances from the norm (The more dice you roll, the closer average trends should be followed).

I'm in the camp of MW4+ for many reasons though, not just statistical analysis (Useful though it is).

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:54 pm 
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However is it too much?


Not at all, giving the Vindicator Ignore Cover in Firefights would give it a concrete role in the Marine armylist, whilst Walker is very flavourful and helps it make the most of its slow speed.

For me it's a tossup between MW4+ and your proposal... and I think that the context of the Marine armylist moves me in favour of the background-matching MW proposal (And the IG platforms can be rebalanced with points cost nudges if nessesary... only potentially nessesary in the case of the LR Demolisher IMHO).



Vindicators are supposed to be the Marines' answer to entrenched enemies and Titan-class armour... right now it's a lame duck.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:15 pm 
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I've never heard of Vindicators used against titans.


Well, it's out there. :)

Against entrenched enemies the Vindicator is certainly not a lame duck.

With just four shots for 300 points, the Marines are better off spending those points on a Tactical formation, or Devestators & a Librarian, and Engaging.

Vindicators just look terrible in comparison. They're a support-based (non-engagement) formation, lacking in firepower, in an Engagement orientated army.

They're 300 points-worth of blastmarker-layers.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:45 pm 
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Okay, that's interesting stuff Blarg.


Thank you, I appreciate it.  Just remember what I did if we ever talk about titan weapons...

Now leave its speed at 20cm, and change the main gun to a 4+ MW instead.

The factor I use for a 10cm speed reduction is a bit of a SWAG based upon some shaky assumptions, but I'd put firepower of your proposal at 116.65% of the firepower of the Predator Destructor.  While I don't require stuff that I calculate to be absolutely equal, I prefer numbers to be within 5% of each other to consider them equal.  While I would reject your idea due to differences in firepower, the speed reduction is open to argument.

Remember to bear in mind that Predators are also overpriced.

That's immaterial because I am basing part of my discussion on the assumption that both tanks are the same price.  As long as you keep both of the Predators and the Vindicators the same price for a formation of four then my analysis holds.  The last time I looked most everybody considered both classes of tanks equal in price.

In my opinion, a vehicle with less shots but the same cost should have a higher base value of damage potential when looked at under the type of analysis you've done, due to the higher probability of wide variances from the norm (The more dice you roll, the closer average trends should be followed).

Since all of the dice rolls involve a single D6 we are talking about flat distributions of probability.  Given a large enough sample size (many, many turns of firing over many, many games) if you have one weapon that automatically hits, two weapons that have a 4+ to hit, 3 weapons that have a 5+ to hit, or six weapons that have a 6+ to hit they should all have equal performance on average.

<<< --- >>>

Interesting. You are chancing your mind towards what TRC and I tried to talk in the Vindicator thread

I'll argue pretty hard in favor of my opinions and beliefs, but I have no problem changing my mind, especially if I have detected that I made a mistake or if somebody shows me proof.  (Engineer's motto: In God we trust, everybody else must show data.)  The problem with these boards is that aside from a pile of playtest reports that coalesce into a solid consensus nobody puts forth data or proof.  It's all opinion, a lot of it in my opinion poorly founded or fueled by hidden agenda.

I've been using this system for a couple of years, and while I will never claim it to be 100% accurate I have, with repeated use, gotten pretty comfortable that it is a good system.  Previous to today I had never really bothered too much with the Ignore Cover weapons.  I just slapped them a x2.0 modifier and went on with the understanding that I would re-visit it someday.  That day was today.  By re-reviewing the rules, applying some critical thought, and changing the modifier from 2.0 to 1.16667 that was enough to change the numbers for the Vindicator to indicate that the speed needed to be changed.  Now I have to go back to the Ignore Cover titan weapons and refigure them.

However I still think that keeping the speed to 25 is a good thing. It's reasonably fast that it doesn't slow the formation more than 10cm in double. And instead of 5cm speed give it Ignore Cover to FF as well. And then the last bit is the Walker. It would help it to move into covered areas to flush the enemy out. However is it too much?

While your suggestions are interesting, I don't think they make sense in the grand sceme of things.  Why would the Space Marines tolerate a vehicle that is slower than all of their other Rhino based vehicles?  I overlooked that argument because I placed too much value in the Demolisher Cannon and assumed that the Space Marines were willing to make the sacrifice of speed for the Ignore Cover special ability.  I was wrong.

The Space Marines are all about Maneuver Warfare on the Operational level, and one of the most important aspects of that style of fighting is speed.  Since Epic is an Operational level game (it's not a Tactical level game, and it's certainly not a Strategic level game, so it falls in the middle area of an Operational level game) the Space Marines are going to favor the 30cm speed, consistent with more than half of their vehicles, over a slower unit with Walker special ability.

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 Post subject: Demolisher Cannons - What to do?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:48 pm 
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Speeders are a more effective, faster and cheaper blastmarker-layer than Vindicators.

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