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GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
Bombot
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:52 am 
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(Hena @ Jan. 20 2007,13:49)
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It would be nice to see the balace sheet for SG. Too bad there is no such thing (at least I couldn't find any).

The balance sheet:

GW's latest balance sheet

They?re alright but increasing the borrowings to maintain the current dividend isn?t something they can do forever.

I don?t think they will retreat into the ?focus on core games? shell.  40k is under threat from competition.  They need another game line or two to bring in revenue and they sure as hell aren?t going to break open the purse strings to pay to develop a new one.  I don?t know if they will really start to push BFG (the one I assume will get any attention) but I really don?t think they?re going to make the SG situation any worse.

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Bombot
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:56 am 
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Oh right, I see.  You?re after the income statement, rather than the balance sheet.  Yes I think that would be interesting but groups tend not to structure the segmental reporting section so that it provides any information the reader might actually want.  That section of the accounts is where information on different revenue streams would be found, but at heart SG is in the same business as GW main (selling minis) so they don?t have to split it out.  And if they don?t have to, they won?t.

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nealhunt
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 2:54 pm 
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(CyberShadow @ Jan. 20 2007,10:43)
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Have any other wargame companies had such a troubled few years?

Yes.  Pretty much the entire non-video game industry has tanked.  Cards, RPGs, and miniature games have all taken a beating.  Independent retailers in the US are down almost 50% over 5 years ago.  I think 2 of the major US distributors have gone out of business (no doubt, GW and Wizards moving their distribution in-house had much to do with that).

Interestingly, the guy at Wizards of the Coast/D&D who spearheaded the d20 OGL (and who has a corresponding reputation for understanding the game market overall) is predicting that something major is afoot at GW.  There were major changes in stock positions in November and again in January.  Personally, I think he is misreading the market reports based on an understanding of the US market rather than the way the UK stock market works, but nonetheless, there are several hundred thousand shares that used to be in the hands of mutual fund companies that are no longer in a reportable position.  With the fact that ~15million shares have moved in the past few months, the drop in share price over the past few years, and the recent earnings forecast revision, it is possible that something is happening.

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Dwarf Supreme
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:11 pm 
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(Markconz @ Jan. 20 2007,02:45)
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"We have not been paying enough attention to the hobbyists. We need to get back to our bread and butter," said Ted Kirby, chairman and chief executive of Games Workshop.

I'm actually surprised that he publicly admitted it. I'm also afraid that "We need to get back to our bread and butter" means pushing WH and 40k even more. However, maybe we will seem some real change. I certainly don't expect it, but who knows.

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CyberShadow
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:17 pm 
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(nealhunt @ Jan. 23 2007,13:54)
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Interestingly, the guy at Wizards of the Coast/D&D who spearheaded the d20 OGL (and who has a corresponding reputation for understanding the game market overall) is predicting that something major is afoot at GW. ?There were major changes in stock positions in November and again in January. ?Personally, I think he is misreading the market reports based on an understanding of the US market rather than the way the UK stock market works, but nonetheless, there are several hundred thousand shares that used to be in the hands of mutual fund companies that are no longer in a reportable position. ?With the fact that ~15million shares have moved in the past few months, the drop in share price over the past few years, and the recent earnings forecast revision, it is possible that something is happening.

I also would not be surprised. I had heard that Kirby himself picked up almost half a million pounds worth of GW shares for his own 'personal' consuption...

A buy-out on the horizon?

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Lion in the Stars
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:51 pm 
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I wonder what'd happen if GW suffered a hostile takeover... (and I don't mean of the Or©ks at the Gates variety!)

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Legion 4
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:16 am 
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At this point, I don't know if the Orks could do a worse job ! :alien:

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CyberShadow
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:00 am 
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I dont think that it would be so good for us. I find it unlikely that GW would be bought by a 'hobby friendly' company. Most likely, if this did happen, the three core would be worked on, SG dropped so fast, and the company branching out into clicky, video games, board games, pre-painted, etc.

Still, this is the web, and mindless speculation and unfounded rumours is what it was invented for! Why let Warseer have all the fun?  :;):

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Bombot
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:21 am 
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I agree with Cybershadow.  If you want Epic to stay in production, you need to be careful what you wish for.

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firestorm40k
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:32 am 
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(CyberShadow @ Jan. 24 2007,10:00)
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Still, this is the web, and mindless speculation and unfounded rumours is what it was invented for!

:laugh:

I love that!  It's got to go inmy sig  :D
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nealhunt
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:51 pm 
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CS:  A buy-out is what studly at Wizards thinks (I really wish I could remember his name...).  Personally, I think that's probably not accurate.

The first moves came in November.  The UK market requires annual reports in May and interim reports in November.  In the US, there is a phenomenon that happens quarterly and more pronounced on the days running up to the annual reports.  Mutual funds have to report their holdings to their shareholders and want to have a spiffy looking report.  As a result, they tend to drop lesser-known companies for bluechips or household names right before the report deadlines.

In November, there was a major dropping of shares as a company reported no longer having a reportable quantity, i.e something like 2 million shares, and a few days later another company reported that they now do have a reportable holding.  In other words, 2 mutual fund companies sold a lot of shares to each other right about the time of the reporting deadline.  Both companies are major UK mutual fund companies, which are not likely to be involved in a takeover process.

The numbers of shares don't line up exactly.  There is a few hundred thousand share discrepancy, but that's not all that surprising.  If one of the companies either already had a position or wanted to keep a smaller position that's easily explained.

It's certainly not definitive, but right now I would lay money on the reporting phenomenon.

Last time I looked at it was a couple of weeks ago.  There had been another report of a large exchange of shares and a new reportable position (again, by a mutual fund company) but I haven't gone back to check to see if there is a second transaction to mate it with.

If anyone wants to look the ticker symbol is GAW on the FTSI.

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Dwarf Supreme
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:14 pm 
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(Bombot @ Jan. 24 2007,05:21)
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I agree with Cybershadow. ?If you want Epic to stay in production, you need to be careful what you wish for.

I'll second that. I think Wizards, or anyone else for that matter, buying GW would be a bad thing for Epic, just like when Hasbro bought Avalon Hill. I think the best solution for the continued life of Epic, and probably all SG games, would be for GW to license the rights to someone.

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mageboltrat
 Post subject: GW's in trouble, it seems...Now,
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:20 pm 
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(Dwarf Supreme @ Jan. 24 2007,15:14)
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(Bombot @ Jan. 24 2007,05:21)
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I agree with Cybershadow.  If you want Epic to stay in production, you need to be careful what you wish for.

I'll second that. I think Wizards, or anyone else for that matter, buying GW would be a bad thing for Epic, just like when Hasbro bought Avalon Hill. I think the best solution for the continued life of Epic, and probably all SG games, would be for GW to license the rights to someone.

Personally all that I feel needs to happen is for GW to get a bit of distance from the boost in sales from LOTR films, the problem might well be the shareholders running around like headless chickens and telling GW they must cut funding to less profitable lines in hopes of getting bigger dividends in line with the LOTRs years. when they get used to normal growth again things might get much better.




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