hey all,

We've seen an explosion in small manufacturers over the last few years, and printing costs are only dropping. Sooner or later the 'start-up' cost for a new miniture company will be in the design time, not really manufacturing.

so what will happen?
Things getting cheaper until everyone is only making marginal cost (if that's not true already)
A massive explosion of manufacters chasing an increasingly fractured market?
A steady state reached where manufacters start-up and drop out (due to whatever reason) at about the same rate.
6mm suddenly becoming a schoolyard craze?

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My shifting projects

In the 15mm scene a lot of this is happening. I mean there are new manufacturers popping up all the time. Have to say that too often they don't offer anything new or high quality. Most seem to be just people who try to benefit from the 15mm boom. Sometimes it's just unbelievable what kind of casts people bring to the market...

6mm is different story imo. There really aren't that many companies producing high quality 6mm models. I think there's a lot of room for companies who would take this scale seriously and could harness and combine the modern and traditional methods of sculpting / molding.

The 6mm player base is also pretty small (I think) and that doesn't really make it possible for hitting big, unless someone really comes up with a killer game like Flames of War was for 15mm.

So I think that the option will be more or less:

A steady state reached where manufacters start-up and drop out (due to whatever reason) at about the same rate.

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Shapeways store: https://www.shapeways.com/shops/tinywares

Blogging about 6-15mm wargaming: http://www.lead-space.net

Not sure if this is aimed at all of 6mm, or just 6mm scifi/modern, but, for scifi:

I think the thing that has to happen is a more powerful split away from GW dominated IP within 6mm scifi. (My perceptions is that:) Currently, if a 6mm mini you make looks like something from GW IP or acceptably fits into a GW slot it will sell, if not, meh, if it's cool should be just 'ok'. If lots of little manufacturers appear making small independent ranges I'm not sure there will be enough motivation to move out of the GW IP sphere and interact with them, except where you can just nick bits and use them as GW proxy.

That said, the startup costs for a very small venture are sufficiently low that you can make a few things more or less just for your personal use + friends to game with and not go bankrupt if it does not sell much outside that.

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AFK with real life, still checking PMs

A combination of two and three, I'd say.

We're already seeing the explosion and frecturing of the market, though 'fracturing' is a misleading term. I'm currently invested in five mass combat games (10mm or less, including a mass Naval combat system - VaS). I'd like to find the time and money to add at least a couple more. I have models from six different commercial manufacturers (low volume/custom suppliers not included), with at least vague plans to purchase from three more in time.

I suspect many are in the same boat - the market is becoming fractured, but is becoming a 6mm market instead of a market for [insert game here] at the same time. Eventually the market will saturate, with perhaps half a dozen 'leaders' and a bevy of smaller concerns.

It's largely the same pattern I'm seeing in 28mm gaming now that the GW monolith is starting to erode.

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SG

Ghost's Paint Blog, where everything goes that isn't something else.

Well we'll just have to wait and see ... more people can use new tech, and can produce new minis ... but cost and the poor economic situation ... may certainly be a factor ...

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Legion 4 "Cry Havoc, and let slip the Dogs of War !" ... "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."

I prefer to think of it as new technologies converging in time for us to ride the boom...

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My shifting projects

Again ... we'll have to wait and see ...

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Legion 4 "Cry Havoc, and let slip the Dogs of War !" ... "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."

I foresee kind people sharing their 3D model files for free.

I second this.

Much like Napster from back in my college days, I suspect the 'free 3D object' market will be driven by legions of college-age art students producing models in a similar fashion to a million chimps chained to typewriters cranking out the complete works of Shakespeare.

There will be a large number of sub-par works (take a look at the shapeways stores to see what I mean) but there will be some high quality ones out there.

What we really need is a site that will rate each model, akin to cool mini or not. And while we're on that topic, we need the same kind of site for rating smart phone apps.

Create a site that can help consumers separate the wheat from the chaff and you'll make money from the sidebar ads.

Invest in some good 3D scanners and teach a few of the chimps to use them, get rid of half of the other chimps.

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AFK with real life, still checking PMs

Well, sure, but the chimps I was referring to are free.

The beauty of the plan is that when winter comes all the chimps will freeze to death.

Ye but the chimps are like art students? I wouldn't trust art students, shifty lot, they'd muck it up and then just re-conceptualise the notion of success.

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AFK with real life, still checking PMs

Though I am definitely a part of it I cannot help but think of the already mentioned mental IP lock in that GW has accomplished. I don't know about 6mm in general, but although production costs fall, the Epic community really has to step up and find ways to manage the creation of (hopefully compatible) IP to break those chains that are stifling the present development of the hobby.

This is all about the current and near future development. However, it will probably take a while before we all have cheap 3D scanners to produce tons of 3D-scanned and reproduced minis of good quality.

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Nitpicks Knapsack (Scratchbuilding and 3D designing and printing and painting)

things are progressing very very very quickly: http://www.wimp.com/creativeprinting/

and when I'm back from this campaign, I've got a large quantity of stuff for you lot to look over.

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My shifting projects

Thats awesome, maddoctor! I want those stairs made of LEGOs.

Also, nice, inexpensive, IP neutral minis.

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SG

Ghost's Paint Blog, where everything goes that isn't something else.