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2W6 for assault resolution

 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 10:35 am 
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HI @all!

I wanted to know what you guys think about the 2W6 you throw to determine the outcome of an assault!

Am i the only one that is annoyed because it makes assaults even more random?

I mean if you win an assault by 3-4 points, it is imo a quite high win, but you can still loose the assault if your dice roll sucks.

Basically it all comes down to the dice roll at the end, which isn't very challenging strategic-/tactical-wise i think.

what do u think?

bg,


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:15 pm 
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I think it's pretty good, actually. While you can win against an opponent 3-4 points up, it's going to be quite rare. For you to beat me when I'm 4 points up requires me to get two 1s (odds: 1 in 36) and you to get at least one 6 (odds: 11 in 36). The odds of these happening together are 11 in 1296 - there is a less than 1% chance of losing when you're 4 points up. (I would note that you can be 4 points up by attacking an opponent with 1 BM when you have none and killing 5 of their units vs. 3 of yours, for example)

I like the way it throws a little bit of randomness into close results and occasionally makes the guys that seemed like they were winning panic and run away.


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:09 pm 
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Quote: (mspaetauf @ 07 Feb. 2009, 10:35 )

HI @all!

I wanted to know what you guys think about the 2W6 you throw to determine the outcome of an assault!

Am i the only one that is annoyed because it makes assaults even more random?

I mean if you win an assault by 3-4 points, it is imo a quite high win, but you can still loose the assault if your dice roll sucks.

Basically it all comes down to the dice roll at the end, which isn't very challenging strategic-/tactical-wise i think.

what do u think?

bg,

Are you sure you are doing assault resolution correctly?

It´s roll 2D6, pick the highest (results between 1-6), which is an in-built hedge against too much randomness, not roll 2D6 and add the two dices (resulting in a value between 2 and 12):



1.12.7 Work Out Result
After both players have removed casualties, the outcome of
the combat must be decided. If one side wiped the other
side out, then it is the winner. If both sides have units
remaining then each player rolls 2D6, and then adds any
modifiers that apply from the chart below to the single D6
that rolled highest. Note that you don’t add your dice rolls
together, but use the single dice with the highest score (ie,
roll two dice and pick the highest)
. Whoever has the higher
score after any modifiers have been added wins the assault.


Neal has posted the associated probabilites a couple of times here, if you are +2 ahead in resolution modifieres you are basically looking at a safe win, with +3 you need really bad luck in order for you lose.

And those modifiers are somewhat predicatable: Make sure to stack Inspiring, outnumbering and BM in your favour and you should be well ahead before any kills are included. Push the killing in your favour as well by clipping or fighting on your terms (CCing good FFers and vice versa, massive support fire) to guarantee results.

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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:20 pm 
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yeah, i know how it's worked out.

but i would never say that you'd be looking at a safe win if you have +2. at least from my personal experience :)
Anyone got a link to those probabilities? I'd like to see that!


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:53 pm 
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I wanted to know what you guys think about the 2W6 you throw to determine the outcome of an assault!


I think it is great,to me it means almost all assaults have a degree of uncertainty about them and there are few guaranteed engage actions in a game.


I mean if you win an assault by 3-4 points, it is imo a quite high win, but you can still loose the assault if your dice roll sucks.



The whole game comes down to dice rolls. Where would we stop if we want to get rid of the randomness of dice it is in all aspects of the game.

I've played in tournaments where an opponent had Vultures, Deathstrikes and a Shadowsword Co fire and destroy only 1 chimera .That was 10  attacks on 2+ and 3 on 3+ (shadowswords were shooting into cover after moving).

At another tournament (IIRC I think it may have been the same player) teleported 4 chosen into attack a Manticore Battery and ended up with just 1 normal hit (which was saved) out of 9 attacks on 3+ (5 being MW).The roll of meant the Manticore's were on +3 (no BM's,less BM's than opponent and Commissar) the Chosen were on +1 (outnumbering).After the 2d6 were rolled for combat resolution the chosen won by 1.

I've had many games that I would have won which have been drawn or lost because of rolling 1's for activation or double 1's for combat resolution whilst being well ahead.

I'm just trying to show that the whole game relies on dice rolling and it's randomness.
Usually over a few games the good and bad luck balances out and the extreme rolls are usually the ones most remembered.

Basically it all comes down to the dice roll at the end, which isn't very challenging strategic-/tactical-wise i think.
But thats the whole game,it all comes down to the dice rolls we just have to hope the dice are good at the right times.





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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:08 pm 
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sure most of it is about dice rolls.

but especially for assaults you already have a certain randomness when throwing to-hit dice and making armour saves.
For me it's just too much to add that extra randomness with the 2W6. That's just strange i think!
I mean i usually calculate my chances, adding up the dice i have and my to-hit values, and what the opponent has to get an idea of the outcome. Sure i have to throw the dice, but i have an idea what's most likely going to happen. Then i roll 2W6 and it all goes crap...


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:36 pm 
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Quote: (mspaetauf @ 07 Feb. 2009, 13:08 )

Sure i have to throw the dice, but i have an idea what's most likely going to happen. Then i roll 2W6 and it all goes crap...

You've just got to prep things... and make more kills!  *laugh*

Using a "clean" formation to assault an enemy with 1 Blast marker on it means you're already at +2... if you're using a larger formation than the enemy, or have inspiring, you've got another +1; so, that's +3 before any attacks are made.

Attacking in the way that's most advantageous to you should, on average, mean you score more kills than the enemy, say a differential of 2 more kills... that means you're now at +5 to the die roll... that looks like an *almost* sure thing to me.

And that doesn't even include the potential of support fire, which could really tip things.

If you're not doing that kind of "prep work" before an assault, I can see how it becomes a "close thing"... and that's the way the game is *supposed* to work... if you *do* do all you "prep" first, it should be rare to lose an assault.

Performing successful assaults is probably one of the toughest parts of the game.

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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:39 pm 
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Quote: (mspaetauf @ 07 Feb. 2009, 13:08 )

Then i roll 2W6 and it all goes crap...

But it is the same for everyone.It's not as though only the player on +4 can roll double 1's.

Players hate it when they are on -4, then roll double 1's whilst the opponent rolls a 6,wins by 10 and wipes out a full formation 0f 13 guardsmen with only 4 assault marines but that's the game.


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:51 pm 
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Performing successful assaults is probably one of the toughest parts of the game.

I think mspaetauf knows about setting up favorable assaults and support etc..
He just doesn't like the fact that you can be on +3 or +4 and still lose the assault but I see being on +4 as still a close thing.

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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 3:40 pm 
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what i really don't like about it is the added randomness, that just doesn't make sense imo.

If you take a different GW game (WH Fantasy, Warmaster) for example, you just fight and compare the results.
It still can happen that Grotz win against Terminators, which is ok for me because that's just what rolling dice is about. If i am in base contact with 4 Terminators and score no hits and get beaten, well ok, that's life.

But winning combat by 3 points (whatever the reason), and then loosing the assault, that's just stupid i think.

i'd love to hear Jervis' reason why he did it the way he did it! :)





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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 8:59 pm 
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Quote: (dptdexys @ 07 Feb. 2009, 13:39 )

Quote: (mspaetauf @ 07 Feb. 2009, 13:08 )

Then i roll 2W6 and it all goes crap...

But it is the same for everyone.It's not as though only the player on +4 can roll double 1's.

Players hate it when they are on -4, then roll double 1's whilst the opponent rolls a 6,wins by 10 and wipes out a full formation 0f 13 guardsmen with only 4 assault marines but that's the game.

Well you would say that wouldn't you. Your 'left-handed' lucky dice are almost as legendary as my bad luck :laugh:

But back on topic, IMO it is precisely this random element that brings the game alive. History is littered with real events that defy the expectations of the participants, from the Charge of the Light brigade (C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre) and the battle of Auerstadt (Davout beat the main Prussian army at odds of 1:3) to the loss of Fort Douamont in WWI (captured by a German patrol that found an unlocked door).

I guess mspaetauf and I just need to learn about how to throw 'left-handed' dice :laugh:

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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:21 pm 
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Quote: (Ginger @ 07 Feb. 2009, 19:59 )

Well you would say that wouldn't you. Your 'left-handed' lucky dice are almost as legendary as my bad luck :laugh:

Hey!! I've rolled a couple of one's ....... once  :whistle:

I just have a different way of looking at odds when rolling dice,my chances of rolling a 6 with 1 d6 is 50/50 it's either a 6 or it isn't.It works for me  :agree:


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:30 pm 
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Quote: (dptdexys @ 07 Feb. 2009, 20:21 )

I just have a different way of looking at odds when rolling dice,my chances of rolling a 6 with 1 d6 is 50/50 it's either a 6 or it isn't.It works for me  :agree:

QI line :)

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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:32 pm 
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Maybe we should commision some Dice of Ginger and get dptdexys to use those at FSA  :p


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 Post subject: 2W6 for assault resolution
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 10:02 pm 
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Quote: (zombocom @ 07 Feb. 2009, 20:30 )

Quote: (dptdexys @ 07 Feb. 2009, 20:21 )

I just have a different way of looking at odds when rolling dice,my chances of rolling a 6 with 1 d6 is 50/50 it's either a 6 or it isn't.It works for me  :agree:

QI line :)

I heard it first whilst watching/playing poker around 1997/98.  
Some players were very good at calculating odds of hitting cards and some were not,they would say they had a 50% chance of hitting their card/cards no matter the actual percentage.
They had a "50/50 chance as the cards either hit or missed".
I have used the same rules for odds since especially in epic,the problem is when using volcano cannons they seem to miss at least half the time  :vD


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