Carlos, that is my recommendation, and I may drop in tonight for a few minutes

Hope you drop in for a few games! We've got so many new players, they really need the help of the Central London Master!

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smells like..... progress!!

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BTW I just re-read my last post from the other day which I wrote on my phone (yes it took a while!). It didn't read how I wanted it to, sounded a bit too directed towards Ginger, so wanted to apologise for that.

I think we all know this is a difficult unit to balance, as I said before almost any change we make will affect something else. In principle I would agree with Irisado that the first step would be to agree what the Cobra is supposed to be, but I think we're actually past that and don't really disagree - this is just a misperception based on the proposed changes having side effects that are not consistent with the role. But it's just that it's impossible to represent properly in Epic so we have to make sacrifices. Once I got past the realisation that the unit will never be perfect (e.g. it will always be OK against heavily armoured infantry, and as Ginger says it will always struggle to fit into a hit n'run style), it just became about making some change, any change, to get it onto the table.

I will test it at 2BP, 45cm, full IC (if my opponent agrees of course).

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Witnessed a game last night between Eldar and a combined IG & SM army, which unfortunately only had a formation of knights and nothing bigger for the Cobra to try to kill.

Stats used BP2, 45cm, MW (TK3)+1, IC

From memory,

Turn#1

The Cobra sat on the Blitz intermingled with some rangers on OW and did nothing.
Turn#2

Terminators teleported in (1BM) and assaulted the intermingled formations, losing a unit to Ranger OW on the way in. The terminators killed two Rangers in CC, but then lost the assault resolution and a second terminator, withdrawing to some nearby woods.
The Cobra singled into the woods and threw two dice, with a 5/9 chance of hitting at least one Terminator. This happened (wiping out the other stand for being broken).
Turn #3

The Cobra singled forward to pick on some Devastators, covering two Rhinos and one Dev with the template. One vehicle was vapourised.

Conclusion
Inconclusive really, save that the 45cm range did allow the last shot to be done at a sinlge rather than a double, so giving the slight boost anticipated.
So in the end, the Cobra just about earned its points as it killed off ~200 points of enemy, albeit of the wrong type.

So I tried a "3 Cobra" army recently at the Winter Warmer, Westbury, preceded by an attempt against an Ork Mega-Gargant based army. Results were rather dismal, partly due to poor play on my part, and also poor dice - but you can't have everything
But it did get me thinking about things a bit.

Cobra Maths

The niche role for Cobras is against titans, where they can excel - but not always, which is the main point of the thread.
Given that each hit causes ~3 damage, and that you get 1/2DC dice to roll, the formula for effectiveness against titans is


3*DC / 2* 'to hit' where DC is rounded up to the nearest even number, and 'to hit' is dependant on whether the Cobra is 2BP or 3BP,

This gives the following formula for damage caused by a single Cobra depending on whether it is Sustaining, Advancing or Doubling

• 2BP - Sustaining: 1/2 DC, - Advancing: 1/4 DC, - Doubling: 1/8 DC
  
• 3BP - Sustaining: 3/4 DC, - Advancing: 1/2 DC, - Doubling: 1/4 DC
It is worth noting that adding a model to the '2BP' version turns it into the '3BP' version, but if the Cobra is already 3BP, using a pair does not improve the maths per se. But the 3BP version does become much more effective against other targets, and a pair becomes realy lethal against all targets.
The other thing to note is that dice results are discrete - they do not follow smooth graphical results. This means, you are more likely to achieve the desired results with more dice (against larger titans) and less likely to do so with fewer dice (against smaller targets). Put another way, Cobras work better the larger the titan - DC6 and over, while they are both less reliable and less cost effective against WE that are DC4 or smaller. This is because you really need two and preferably three sustained shooting attacks to kill an unshielded enemy titan.

However, being aggressive against titans relies heavily on winning the strategy roll-off, as the Cobras will usually die if the enemy goes first. Unfortunately, the odds are not that good.
• Against Marines and BL, Eldar have a 42% chance of winning the SR (assuming the opponent wins the 1st turn - otherwise it is a paltry 27%)
• Against Eldar, the loser of a previous SR has a 58% chance of winning the next round, otherwise its 42%.
• Against Orcs the odds are reversed, giving the Eldar a 58% chance of success.
  
Equally the Eldar need to pass the initiative roll, which is at best a 5/6 chance (2+), but can easily be reduced to 2/3 or even 1/2 with a BP and / or retaining. This further reduces the odds of several Cobras carrying out a successfull attack to ~33%, although the presence of the Autarch does raise the odds to ~50% at best.
IMHO it is these odds that are the real reason why Cobras tend not to do well against titans.

Play Style
Cobras can be used in three broad ways; defensively, aggressively and as opportunists. However, correct placement of objective is paramount and the initial locations of the Cobras will significantly impact their effectiveness, and the Eldar player needs to keep the Autarch on the table during critical periods to have the re-roll available.

• Defensively, Cobras can be very effective Blitz guards. One or preferably two in a corner on OW make a very tough target to crack by ordinary troops. They get AA against air assaults as well as OW shooting with TK weaponry, and potentially need several attempts to dislodge them - especially if guarded by Rangers or another formation.
• If you are going to use Cobras aggressively, they need to be able to move after opponents that can hurt them - so generally you need a high activation army (~12+ activations). This is especially true for killing titans as previously described. (but see the maths above)
• Opportunist use of Cobras sees them located in terrain (to reduce the potential for enemy fire), in places where they can pounce on smaller enemy formations and defend against enemy incursions.

The problem is that aggressive and opportunist strategies are difficult to play, and can often be easily thwarted by the opponent - eg by having a screen positioned around the titan target, or by having several medium or small titans.

Development options
The following extends options considered before which could also be combined, but not all will appeal to eveyone.

• Increase the range to 45 cm
  Would give them greater reach which would make them more forgiving of poor initial placements and better able to shoot past screens.
• Remove the Forward Fire arc restriction
  This would make them more lethal as a static guard and more forgiving of poor positioning during the game. However it does not reflect the apparent design of the Cobra which has not turret.
• Make them initiative 1+
  This would significantly improve their chance of activating, but still leaves the strategy roll-off as the single most important factor in their success against titans. However it is contrary to the generic Eldar list design, and would make the Cobra better in other situations.
• Make them DC4 or improve the armour to RA 4+
  Either would make them more able to survive losing the strategy role, which in turn gives them a better chance of sustaining at a critical point. Neither are unreasonable given the way the Cobra has to be put into a 'suicidal' position to achieve the goal of destroying an enemy titan. However both options are contrary to the generic list design, and may make Cobras too good in other roles.
• Reduce their cost
  Mentioned for completeness, but not desirable for many reasons.
• Increase the firepower to 3BP
  This does not really assist killing titans, while it does make the Cobras better all-round killers. Not my preference, but should be considered. IMO the issue is whether it makes them too good as a singlton and especially as a pair.
• Revert to Ignore Cover against all targets
  Reverting to IC against infantry and vehicles obviously makes them better against these targets, which may be desirable if they cannot be improved against titans. However this does remove an annoying anomaly in the stats.
• Ignore Shields
  Boosts the attack against WE targets while not against other targets. However, as Cobras need not rely on other formations to strip the shields, this potentially boosts the rest of the army. It is also another 'special rule'
• Increase the TK damage value
  Boosts the damage to WE targets while not affecting other targets. Could be a single number (TK5) or used with a variable (TKD3+2) etc. This would also boost the ability to kill smaller titans with a single Cobra. Few if any downsides other than a possibility of distorting the balance against titans (taken to the extreme a 250 point Cobra might kill a 1050 point Mega-Gargant in a single attack which could be seen as a little excessive)

(Edited to include other options mentioned earlier)

Or make them no longer a template weapon, like the deathstrike.

Personally I am fine with them being an anti-WE weapon, and I don't mind them being effective against heavy infantry as a secondary usage either. Wormholes But they aren't actually good in any role. As you say, they rarely actually get in to a position to do the one thing that they're supposedly good at doing (killing big war engines), and even when they do get there they just aren't reliable enough at doing it. That the Cobra should do less damage to small WEs than big ones doesn't stand up to scrutiny either. Even the other uses you describe are probably best served by other formations (e.g. 600 points on a blitz guard goes a long way).

IMO it's not really practical to try to solve the "external" issues like strategy, initiative, activations, placement etc, they are minor adjustments at best and misrepresent the unit at worst. For me, if anything is to be done it should be to address the Cobra's actual problem and without breaking convention from the rest of the list (e.g. 4+ RA, 1+ init). What stops the Cobra being a niche but acceptable anti WE weapon is its hit roll and/or number of shots, which are impossible to change whilst it remains a barrage weapon.

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Just out of interest, apart from the play testing which Ginger outlined above, has anyone else been conducting any play testing of Cobra formations?

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I like the idea of it shooting a cruise missile instead of being a template weapon. Off the top of my head it sounds like it solves all our problems.

I have added a couple of options mentioned earlier.

As to changing to a non-template weapon (Deathstrike or other), I am not sure this is the answer - range is not mentioned and is seen as part of the intrinsic problem, and it removes the one major advantage of using the template mechanic - that the weapon increases in power with the size of the target.

How about changing it from TK(D3+1) to TK(D6) like the Titan D-Cannon? It still has shorter range and fewer BPs, so it is clearly not as big a gun as the Titan version, but it does become a lot more dangerous against large WEs, without changing its performance against smaller targets.

Certainly an option, but one that increases the random results rather than reducing them. It would be the hight of frustration to get Cobras into position safely, win the strategy role, activate them successfully and manage to score some hits only to achieve a single point of damage with each.

Hence the suggestion to use something like TK(D3) + 3 to achieve a similar result that is much less random.

What range do you prefer, 30cm or 45cm?
And are there any other options you would consider or definitely reject?

The Titan D-Cannon seems strong enough; Personally, I can easily imagine a portable warp rift to somewhat random. Also, the elation when you roll high and one-shots an Imperator or Great Gargant is the stuff of legends (and unlikely to happen more than once against any given opponent, granted).



It shouldn't be stronger than the Titan version, certainly. TK(D3+3) is much better than D6.

You might boost it to 45cm, but then it definitely should stay at TK(D3+1). However, this makes it generally more useful, not just more useful against Titans. I rather like the concept of a dedicated Titan-killer tank, it fits the Eldar hyper-specialization ethos well. I think boosting damage against WEs does more to reinforce this role than anything else.

As to other options, I think the EoVs generally need a discount when bought in multiples - 250 for the first and 200 for the second and third seems about right.

I'd say that with TK(D6) and at 450 for a pair, Cobras makes a very viable formation.

I don't really see why it's desirable or necessary for the weapon to actually get better against larger targets, and I see that feature as a bad thing (i.e just one of the reasons why it very rarely does anything useful). As for range, I understand what you're saying about making it a bit easier to use and theoretically therefore less hit-or-miss, and I agree that the problems with the Cobra are a compounding of many issues that contrive to lengthen the odds of it proving useful in a game. But for me I don't see the point in making it easier to use when it still isn't good enough even when you manage to use it. It needs better hit rolls, or more dice. 2x6+ is just a laughable stat, and fiddling with the range doesn't change that. 1 million * zero is still zero...

The reason why I think the "you never get to use it" context (thus stats like range, speed, armour) is important to bear in mind is just to illustrate that it's OK for the d-cannon to be given the stats of a very reliable high damage weapon, because it would not be reflected in the overall effectiveness of the unit over the course of a game.

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I agree with Ginger, it's a ridiculously random weapon as it is - that's the whole problem. Making it more random doesn't solve the issue, which is that if you have a niche weapon, it needs to be reliable AND powerful in that niche in order to be used.

And again, increasing the range just makes it easier to achieve those crap disappointing results.

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